El Nino and grain supplies threaten rice crop harvests

A world still reeling from grain supply shortages due to the Ukraine war faces danger to rice production from the impact of earlier than usual El Nino conditions across Asia.

A natural, temporary, and occasional warming of a part of the Pacific, the El Nino shifts global weather patterns and is being exacerbated by climate change. Announced in June by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration a couple of months earlier than it usually begins, the El Nino is expected to grow in intensity. Meteorological scientists predict there’s one in four chances the El Nino could grow to supersized levels.

That’s terrible news for rice growing Asia, where farmers grow 90% of the world’s rice, since an El Nino of increased intensity means reduced rainfall for the thirsty grain.

Extreme weather, ranging from floods to droughts, has been a result of previous El Ninos.

According to Abdullah Mamun, a research analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), there is already reason for concern about rising rice prices due to shortfalls in production. In Thailand, the average cost of 5% broken white rice in June 2023 was nearly 16% higher than it was in June of the previous year.

In part due to last year's devastating floods in Pakistan, a major rice exporter, global rice stocks have been running low for over a year. This year’s El Nino is predicted to amplify other challenges for rice-producing nations, such as the fact that some nations’ have imposed restrictions on rice exports and the reduced availability of fertilizers due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

A recent report by research firm BMI warned that the nations of Cambodia, Myanmar, and Nepal were particularly vulnerable.